This year, the World Economic Forum in Davos has traditionally named the top risks that will be most relevant in the near future. One of the most influential is nuclear war. At the same time, experts agree that the likelihood of its onset is very low.
More significant today are environmental risks. It occupies as many as 3 positions in the top 5 voiced at the forum, being at the same time the most probable and most influential. Even 10 years ago, climate change was spoken of as a false theory. But now no global conference is complete without a program to counter environmental disasters.
The dangers are: extreme weather events, natural disasters and environmental degradation. It coupled with the failure of policies to combat the effects of climate change. It creates risks of mass migration and humanitarian disasters.
And for the first time, digital threats were included in the top five risks. These are actions related to cyber attacks. There are data theft and fake news.
3 scenarios for the development of mankind
The CIA recently provided a report on three geopolitical scenarios that could be realized by 2035:
- The island’s scenario is a tendency towards isolationism. There are economic, migration, technical, informational, and other aspects. So countries will be protected from fake news. There are refugees and the intervention of developed countries.
- The orbit scenario is economic intervention, political influence and other pressure on nearby states. It will be practiced by major regional leaders.
- The community scenario is a variant in which megacities or economic centers of the planet interact directly with each other. And a network of cooperation appears on top of the classical state models.
- Developed countries are already applying export regulations, tariff barriers. And social protection requirements for workers in exporting countries. It’s in order to develop their domestic production.
Modern production and technological lag
According to reports, only 25 countries in the world are technologically advanced enough in terms of infrastructure, talent, regulation, available resources. And there is a number of other criteria. In fact, only these states are ready for a full-fledged independent introduction of modern production.
In this case, developing countries have problems. 25 technologically advanced states can create closed production chains between themselves. It excludes other participants of game testing services by kevurugames.
If earlier developed countries, for the sake of economy, moved production to third world countries. It uses cheap labor and lack of control over environmental pollution. Then in the light of increasing automation and environmental problems, these factors cease to be a competitive advantage.
In recent years, cities in many countries have increased their economic potential. And they gained greater independence. This trend will continue to grow. Cities concentrate talents, capital, business centers. They have little need for other territories of the state.
The lands surrounding them will turn into fields, recreational areas, etc. The world becomes a collection of points. That is, cities between which people move. A significant part of the planet’s territory is not involved in this.
More and more people will live in cities with a population of 10+ million inhabitants. The metropolitan areas will capture small settlements around. They should become part of the city with the appropriate infrastructure. There are high-speed trains similar to those existing in Japan.
Developed countries are already applying export regulations, tariff barriers. And there are social protection requirements for workers in exporting countries. They are used in order to develop their domestic production. In states, infrastructure wears out and. Ss a result, the need for investment and the subsidence of capital within the country accumulates.
Population and migration
In terms of labor migration, the population is growing unevenly in different parts of the world. The undeveloped countries will have the largest population growth. They will not become more economically developed in the near future. There will still be a lack of work and conflicts. In addition, these countries are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Permanent natural disasters and high internal tension will generate a large flow of migrants in these states.
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