Wednesday, July 9, 2025
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Vietnam’s Population Boom: Lessons for Canada’s 100 Million Ambition

In 1977, two years after the end of the Vietnam War, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam had a population of just under 50 million. In 2023, it surpassed 100 million people, a staggering demographic transformation that occurred over less than five decades. By contrast, Canada’s population currently hovers around 43 million, and the federal government has set an ambitious target to triple that number by 2100. While Vietnam and Canada differ dramatically in culture, geography, governance, and development paths, Vietnam’s population growth offers instructive insights—some cautionary, some aspirational—for Canada’s 100 million dream.

1. Demographics Aren’t Destiny, but Policy Matters

Vietnam’s population boom was driven by a combination of post-war baby booms, reduced infant mortality, and expanded access to healthcare and education. The country invested heavily in primary care and public health campaigns that reduced mortality even before GDP per capita began to rise significantly. In the 1980s, however, recognizing the pressures of overpopulation on resources, the Vietnamese government began implementing family planning policies and education campaigns, aiming to reduce fertility and manage growth sustainably. This proactive approach helped stabilize growth in the 1990s and 2000s.

Lesson for Canada: Demographic growth must be accompanied by intentional policy design. Canada’s growth will come largely from immigration, not natural increase. But simply increasing numbers without coordinated policies on housing, infrastructure, healthcare, and integration will strain the system. Vietnam reminds us that how you grow is just as important as how fast.

2. Urbanization: Opportunity and Challenge

Vietnam’s population growth has gone hand in hand with rapid urbanization. In 1977, over 80% of the population lived in rural areas. By 2025, it is projected that more than 45% will be urban, with megacities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi driving economic growth. This shift has fueled Vietnam’s manufacturing boom, expanded its middle class, and positioned the country as a key player in global supply chains.

But urbanization has also led to congested cities, strained infrastructure, and rising inequality between urban and rural areas. The challenge of providing adequate housing, transportation, and social services remains acute, especially for internal migrants.

Lesson for Canada: Canada’s existing urban centers—(Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal) are already under pressure. Homelessness is expanding in each city. A population of 100 million will require not just growth in major cities, but the strategic development of new urban hubs. Investing in transit, affordable housing, and regional planning now will pay dividends later.

3. Human Capital as Growth Engine

Vietnam’s economic miracle—averaging 6–7% annual GDP growth since the early 2000s—has been powered not by natural resources, but by human capital. The country invested heavily in universal education, literacy, and vocational training. A young, increasingly skilled labor force enabled Vietnam to move up the value chain, from basic textiles to electronics and high-tech manufacturing.

Lesson for Canada: Canada must not only attract more people, but ensure those people can thrive and contribute meaningfully. That means investing in settlement services, language training, credential recognition, and higher education. Skilled immigrants often face underemployment in Canada; closing that gap will be essential to making growth equitable and productive.

4. Social Cohesion and Cultural Identity

Vietnam’s population is relatively homogeneous ethnically and linguistically, which has eased some challenges of cohesion despite rapid change. Canada’s growth will look different: it will be multicultural, multilingual, and deeply pluralistic. This diversity is a strength—but only if accompanied by sustained investment in social cohesion.

Vietnam has leveraged shared national identity and pride to maintain a strong sense of collective purpose, even amid growing inequality. Canada will need to define and nurture its evolving national identity as it grows. What binds us together when our backgrounds, beliefs, and experiences are increasingly diverse?

Lesson for Canada: Growth must be accompanied by a renewed narrative about what it means to be Canadian. That story must be inclusive, forward-looking, and built on shared values like tolerance, opportunity, justice, and not just shared history.

5. Environmental and Resource Limits

Vietnam’s rapid growth has come at a cost: deforestation, pollution, biodiversity loss, and vulnerability to climate change. Urban sprawl and industrial development have degraded natural ecosystems. The Mekong Delta, a critical agricultural region, now faces saltwater intrusion and subsidence due to climate impacts and overdevelopment.

Canada, blessed with vast natural resources and low population density, faces a different set of pressures—but they are real. A tripling of population will increase demand for land, water, energy, and food, and could exacerbate emissions unless green technologies and sustainable practices are embedded in every stage of growth.

Lesson for Canada: Long-term growth must be ecologically sustainable. Planning for a 100 million-person Canada means planning for climate resilience, clean energy, water management, and conservation. Vietnam’s experience is a warning: environmental costs don’t appear overnight. But when they do, they are hard to reverse.

Vietnam’s rise from 40 million to 100 million people is not a one-to-one blueprint for Canada. But it is a reminder that population growth is a tool, not a goal. Managed wisely, it can drive prosperity, innovation, and global relevance. Managed poorly, it can strain systems, deepen inequality, and degrade the environment. Canada has an opportunity to shape a future where 100 million people live not just in proximity, but in prosperity, equity, and harmony. Vietnam’s experience shows that growth alone is never enough. What matters is the purpose behind and the preparation that supports it.

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Jennifer Evans
Jennifer Evanshttp://www.b2bnn.com
principal, @patternpulseai. author, THE CEO GUIDE TO INDUSTRY AI. former chair @technationCA, founder @b2bnewsnetwork #basicincome activist. Machine learning since 2009.